绿色建筑项目的风险因素识别与风险路径分析.pdf

施工技术 2012年11月上 30 CONSTRUCTION TECHNOLOGY 第41卷第376期 绿色建筑项目的风险因素识别与风险路径分析 王景慧，秦旋，万欣 (华侨大学土木工程学院，福建厦门361021) [摘要]针对绿色建筑项目的风险管理问题是一个复杂系统问题，各风险因素之间具有交叉关联关系，提出了运用 系统动力学(system dynamics SD)方法来进行风险因素识别与风险路径分析的构想.以承包商视角采用系统动力 学理论为基础建立了绿色建筑项目风险识别模型图，分析了项目目标风险与各风险因素之间的相互关系以及 风险来源，绘制影响目标风险的原因树及风险路径图.通过这些分析，可以帮助承包商辨识绿色建筑的关键 风险因素，并为有效应对绿色建筑的风险做准备. [关键词]绿色建筑；项目管理；风险评估；风险管理；系统动力学 [中图分类号]TU712 [文献标识码]A [文章编号]1002-8498(2012)21-0030-05 Risk Factors Identification and Risk Path Analysis on Green Building Project Wang Jinghui Qin Xuan Wan Xin College of Civil Engineering Huagiao University Xiamen Fujian 361021 China) Abstract:The risk management of green building project is a plex problem and the risk factors are mutually interactive.The method of system dynamics (SD)was proposed for risk factor identification and risk path analysis.From the contractors’perspective a green building projects risk identification feedback model was built using the SD theory.The relationship between the project objectives risk and individual risk factors were analyzed as well as the sources of risks.The target risks'cause tree and risk path feedback figures were drawn.These analyses can help the contractors identify the key risk factors of green buildings and be prepared for dealing with the risks. Key words:green buildings;project management;risk assessment;risk management;system dynamics 0引言 境、节能与能源利用、节水与水资源利用、节材与材 随着我国建筑业的快速发展，环境问题日益突 料资源利用、室内环境质量、运营管理（住宅建筑）、 出.建设过程中向环境排放大量的废水、废气、废 全生命周期综合性能（公共建筑）6个方面对完成施 ...